Key takeaways

Auction clearance rates are surging, indicating a resurgence in buyer confidence and activity.

Core market indicators suggest the downturn is behind us – we’ve entered a new upward phase in the cycle.

Confidence is back across the board – from investors to builders and homebuyers.

Auction clearance rates are soaring. Building costs are rising. Regional markets are booming.

If you’re a property investor wondering whether Australia’s real estate market has turned a corner, My Housing Market’s latest update confirms what many of us have been sensing on the ground: confidence is returning - and with it, momentum.

In this week’s Property Insiders chat, Dr. Andrew Wilson tells us what all this means for investors, builders, and homebuyers alike.

Regional markets: a tale of two States

We know that all our capital cities have delivered month after month property growth for much of this year.

In this week’s Property Insider chat, Dr Andrew Wilson tells us how our regional housing markets are performing.

Clearly, there’s not one regional Australian property market, and Dr. Wilson’s update highlights a remarkable divergence in regional performance, particularly between New South Wales and Victoria.

NSW’s regional markets, especially lifestyle and coastal locations, continue to benefit from post-pandemic migration patterns and flexible work arrangements.

There’s strong demand from both downsizers and younger families escaping Sydney’s price pressures.

Meanwhile, the cooling in Victoria’s premium regional markets may reflect a post-pandemic correction, as people return to Melbourne or rethink long commutes.

I guess the takeaway is that in the regions, follow the people, not the hype. Places with local economic resilience, infrastructure spending, and population growth – like Albury, Newcastle, or Shepparton are outperforming.

Queensland’s broad-based regional property boom continues:

Mackay (+28.7%), Townsville (+23.9%), and Rockhampton (+20.0%) are no longer just lifestyle locations – they’re economic growth hubs, bolstered by internal migration, infrastructure investment, and more diverse employment bases than in the past.

However, in my mind, property price growth in many of Queensland’s regional towns has been driven by an influx of investors, who have been squeezed into these markets by a new wave of young buyers’ agents pushing prices significantly above their fundamentals and what locals would be prepared to pay.

Latecomers to these markets will suffer as prices stall or fall.

At the same time, I would be very wary of buying property in northern Queensland, which is challenged by climatic events and very high insurance premiums and, moving forward, many properties will become uninsurable in the future, meaning there won’t be buyers for them.

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Construction costs still climbing

The building cost crisis that began in 2021 hasn’t gone away – in fact, it’s accelerated again.

Dr. Wilson’s National House Building Cost Index shows the cost base has soared to 160 (indexed to Jan 2018 = 100), with annual growth rebounding to 7.1% after a brief slowdown.

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This uptick in May reflects:

• Material costs remaining elevated
• Labour shortages continuing to bite
• Regulatory delays and compliance are adding friction

New supply remains constrained, and builders are reluctant to commit to fixed-price contracts.

And with construction timelines still drawn out, existing dwellings – particularly established houses in tightly held areas – are becoming even more valuable as they can be bought today considerably below replacement cost.

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Auction markets are back - and booming

Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat as Dr. Wilson paints a striking picture: capital city auction markets have surged into boomtime territory as July comes to a close.

• Sydney and Melbourne are leading the charge, recording clearance rates of 77.4% and 78.1%, respectively – levels we haven’t seen consistently since the post-COVID boom.
• Brisbane, often lagging behind, has clawed its way up to 61.4%, up significantly from last year’s 52.1%.
• Adelaide is holding firm at a robust 77.2%, while Canberra hovers respectably at 65.2%.

This surge is especially noteworthy given it's the middle of winter – typically a quiet time in the property cycle.

But this year, it’s clear that motivated buyers have shrugged off the cold.

These high clearance rates suggest a sense of urgency in the market. Stock levels are tight, and buyers are back with confidence.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “right time,” these numbers suggest that time may be now.

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